Dr. Md. Abdus Salam: Rice is more than just a staple in Bangladesh, it is the backbone of food security, cultural tradition, and rural livelihoods. The Bengal delta, one of the world’s most fertile landscapes, has sustained rice farming for over 2,000 years. From the days when early settlers cultivated rain-fed landraces adapted to local ecology, to today’s high-yielding modern varieties (HYVs), the country’s rice sector has evolved through centuries of innovation, necessity and resilience. Yet, the heavy reliance on irrigated Boro rice now poses new environmental and sustainability challenges, pushing policymakers and scientists to rethink the future of rice cultivation.
Historically, Bangladeshi farmers cultivated more than 5,000 traditional rice varieties, each suited to unique ecological conditions and cultural practices. The three main rice-growing seasons- Aus, Aman and Boro ensured year-round availability. Aus, planted in March-April and harvested in July-August, thrived in short-duration, drought-tolerant conditions. Aman, the dominant season, was largely rain-fed and grown between June and December, with varieties adapted to deepwater conditions. Boro, planted in winter and harvested in spring, traditionally relied on residual monsoon water. Before the widespread adoption of irrigation and chemical fertilizers, farmers depended on organic manure, crop rotations and traditional methods to sustain soil fertility.
The Green Revolution in the 1960s and the establishment of the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) in 1970 marked a turning point. Modern varieties, irrigation and mechanization transformed productivity, enabling Bangladesh to achieve food self-sufficiency. A milestone came in the 1990s with the release of BRRI dhan-28 and BRRI dhan-29, two high-yielding Boro varieties that spread rapidly across the country. Supported by an expansion of irrigation and fertilizer use, Boro production surged and by the late 1990s it had overtaken Aman as the largest contributor to national rice output.
Today, Bangladesh cultivates rice on 11.68 million hectares, producing nearly 41 million metric tons annually. Boro alone accounts for more than half of production, with nearly 100 percent of its area under modern irrigation. According to BRRI, modern variety adoption now covers 94 percent of Aus, 90 percent of Aman and virtually all Boro fields. While this achievement has safeguarded food supply for a growing population, it has also created a dangerous dependence on irrigation.
Producing one kilogram of irrigated Boro rice requires an estimated 1,600 liters of water in the northwest. With only 7 percent of rainfall occurring during the dry season, farmers rely heavily on groundwater extraction. The rapid spread of deep and shallow tube wells has pushed water tables down sharply, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the Barind tract. Experts warn that at current extraction rates, groundwater depth could double by 2030, jeopardizing both agriculture and biodiversity.
This unsustainable model has prompted urgent calls for a strategic shift. Agricultural economists and policymakers argue for rebalancing rice production by reducing Boro dependence and reviving rain-fed Aus and Aman cultivation. Currently, about 0.43 million hectares of land lie fallow during the Aus season. With modern, short-duration HYVs, much of this underutilized land could be brought under cultivation. Projections suggest that by reducing Boro acreage by 5 percent (to 4 million hectares) and expanding Aus coverage by 15 percent through better land use, total production could still be maintained at around 41 million metric tons by 2030. Crucially, this would reduce water use by nearly 4.7 billion liters annually.
Such a shift would not compromise national food security. Bangladesh’s population is expected to reach 190 million by 2030, requiring an estimated 28 million metric tons of clean rice annually. With projected production levels, there would still be a surplus of nearly 13 million tons for seed, feed, stock, and industrial uses. At the same time, changing food habits and dietary diversification open avenues for export opportunities, enhancing Bangladesh’s competitiveness in the global rice market.
The challenge now lies in steering policy, technology and institutions toward this balanced model. Investment in climate-resilient rice varieties, supplementary irrigation, mechanization and efficient water management will be critical. Incentives for farmers to adopt modern Aus and Aman varieties, coupled with support for sustainable practices, can ease the transition. At the same time, strengthening institutional capacity and fostering regional cooperation on water and food systems will ensure long-term resilience.
Bangladesh’s journey in rice cultivation has been one of adaptation and innovation. The expansion of Boro rice secured food self-sufficiency but came at the cost of depleting natural resources. The next phase requires a recalibration, embracing rain-fed traditions alongside modern science to safeguard both productivity and sustainability. With the right mix of policy reform, research investment and farmer engagement, Bangladesh can continue to feed its people while protecting its critical water and ecological resources. The path ahead is not simply about growing more rice but about growing it smarter, more sustainably and with an eye to the future.
The Writer is a Principal Agricultural Economist & DPD (HRD), PARTNER Program, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, Dhaka.